A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
